from the cubicle of foge fazio: here is my forecast for what should prove to be a most memorable season of RFL action. not only has an overseas assignment forced commissioner #2 wang to acknowledge the stat-tracking capabilities of online conglomerate yahoo.com... wang's parting shot as he boarded the plane to heathrow was to bring in 3 young, hotshot GMs - mike, zach and drew. "as we exit the 'mom and pop' age of RFL, i knew the timing was right to capitalize on the revised set of rules by injecting RFL with 3 dues-paying suckers," explained wang. the power ratings below were derived from player projections at the time of the draft. subsequent changes to player status (kordell stewart's whistling birdies flying around his head, edgerrin james' inevitable season-ending injury, t.j. Houshmandzadeh's bum ankle, etc.) and your post-draft roster gyrations (what's the big deal about having gus frerotte or d driver or j wells or dez white on your team?!?) will only be reflected in the growing number in your record's loss column. 1 Vesh - 100 projected starters: kordell, ladainian, t jones, rod and j smith, sharpe, longwell for the 2nd time in 6 years, vesh flaked on the Draft. unlike ‘97 (when vesh was forced to field a team of ragtag romanians), joebob and #2 devised a draft plan for vesh based upon the ESPN cheat sheet and a set order of positions to be filled during each round of the Draft. getting ladainian and rod smith in the 1st 2 rounds is about as solid a starting pair as any team's coming out of the Draft. thomas jones has tremendous bust-of-the-year potential as a 3rd rounder (at 1.7 ypc, jones would need 10 carries just to get 1 pt in the revised kinder and gentler pt scoring system). the keys for [team name TBD]: having t jones blossom into the RB he showed he could be at UVA, and/or having bears reject d'wayne bates step into the cris carter role (not the jake reed one) opposite r moss. strong point: kordell (if wooziness goes away), l tomlinson, rod and jimmy smith, sharpe and longwell are a very formidable starting 6 - especially if j smith isn't too rusty from his holdout. weak points: starting t jones or d bates in the 7th slot is one. also, all 7 of vesh's starting lineup have been injured recently, so the potential to have 2 or more drop off during the season is high. if t jones indeed busts, t wheatley could step in with some decent yardage and TD numbers this season. fiedler is also an ok backup QB. b finneran has gotten some decent pub regarding being a favored target of vick's. WA's offense could generate plenty of pt-scoring opportunities for b conway. 2 Stan - 98.33 projected starters: culpepper, dillon, j stewart, kev johnson, c conway, t gonzalez, feely stan was unanimously recognized in Draft HQs as the slowest drafter this year, but perhaps this slowness helped him draft a stronger team. #2 hopes the implied correlation turns out to be false - for length of the Draft reasons. the primary key for Las Ranas De Mayan would appear to be kevin johnson. after an abysmal y2k season, kj2 performed splendidly in 2k1. browns coach davis made no secret during the offseason that kj2 didn't fit in his long-term plans for couch's receiving corps, but he then gave kj2 the big $ anyway. if kj2 gets fat on his ill-gotten $, a WR pairing of fat-kj2 and c conway won't scare any RFL opponent. the other key to stan's team is RB#2. if j stewart or w dunn can put up good numbers, the steamroller and ags bowl should be well within stan's grasp. but j stewart's 2 years of fame are clearly 2 years behind him - and tj duckett will get all of ATL's goalline carries. strong points: culpepper-gonzalez combo, overall draft value - getting gonzalez in round 4, j stewart in 5, and w dunn in 7 could turn out great. waiting until round 12 to finally pick a PK (feely) could work out well - as feely could score big this year. but some of the picks before feely were a little questionable anyway (l centers, t wilkins, r ferguson). weak points: feely could also prove to be unworthy of a 12th round pick, but PKs are mostly 10 pence a dozen. getting solid production at 2 WR spots out of kj2, conway, ferguson, jj stokes and t wilkins could be a stretch. 3 Mike - 97.22 projected starters: mcnabb, bettis, hearst, r moss, burress, f jones, cahney getting ranked #3 in my preseason poll is quite a feat for a rookie GM - especially considering how little mike *claimed* to prepare. the primary keys for mike's club are his 2 steelers - j bettis and p burress. if bettis stays healthy (and keeps amos and fu away from his touches) and if plaxico takes his game to the next level, mike should be in serious contention for the steamroller and ags bowl. if bettis falters, mike only has g hearst (who has is own touch-protection issues) on the payroll to tote the rock. if burress regresses this year, mike might struggle to find some production from darnay, gaffney or d terrell. strong points: mcnabb-moss hookup, overall balance - lots of people are talking about how mcnabb should make the jump to #3 among RFL QBs this season (behind warner and garcia). and who can argue with a r moss who is promised 15-20 touches per game? if the rest of mike's projected starters stay healthy (and fight off their competition), this team should have a solid weekly scoring base - with the potential to explode from time to time depending on moss. weak points: mike attempted to take advantage of the new starting lineup quota rule (3rd WR ok over 2nd RB) and only drafted 2 RBs in the entire draft. both bettis and hearst have health and PT question marks - and both have big-time TD-scoring issues. will f jones return to all-RFL form with the cardinals? will mike need production from a 3rd WR (darnay, gaffney, or d terrell)? 4 Cals - 97.16 projected starters: b johnson, m faulk, emmitt, tim brown, i bruce, walls, mort is it possible to screw up a marshall faulk supporting cast? my projections indicate cals has not, but things could get very interesting as the season progresses! the primary key for golden years is getting production from the QB position. picking brad johnson to cap the 4th round raised eyebrows throughout RFL-land, but one only needs to understand the "bj was a viking" connection to re-lower those brows. yes, bj should benefit from the addition of a "west coast" offense - and some additional receiving targets. but new coach gruden has gone on record to state his preference of rj over bj. t couch is currently the #2 QB for golden years. with the browns' new emphasis on the running game this year and no real receiving target for couch other than kj2 - it's hard to imagine couch putting up any #s this season. the other key to cals' squad is brittleness. true to the name of the team, cals went heavy on the oldies - emmitt, tim brown, walls and morten in particular. one could easily expect multiple falling-off of limbs and bending-the-wrong-way of joints from this crew. strong point: WR pairing of tim brown and i bruce - despite brown's age, this pairing should easily place in the top half of the league's WR tandems. all cals needs is average production from QB, RB2, TE and PK for faulk/brown/bruce to lead this club to victory every sunday. weak point: QBs (b johnson and t couch), backup WRs - we've already covered the QB issues. heading into the season with t taylor and g crowell backing up the WRs leaves cals' team perilously thin (top-heavy). a few injuries to those graybeards, and faulk could be headed for the scrub bowl come december. 5 Wang - 96.68 projected starters: vick, a and w green, keyshawn, moulds, e johnson, elam wang was quite unhappy to get the 2nd pick in the Draft. the dropoff from faulk to ahman/shaun is huge, and plans to get a decent QB in round 2 (gannon or brooks would have done nicely) fell by the wayside. wang was forced to adjust his draft strategy on the fly. and though the potential exists for an outstanding squad, RFL has had a way of punishing GMs who take on too much risk. the key for chinks in the armor is RB#2. will willie green fight his way into the browns' starting lineup? or will wang need d levens to steal duce's job? or will wang need trung to fill in for a fallen faulk? if wang needs to go with a 3rd WR (p warrick or a lelie), chinks could be in for a dreary season. strong point: wang seems to have put together a team with a very high ceiling. vick could really dazzle this season, the 2 green RBs could emerge as one of the better RFL RB duos this year, keyshawn and moulds shouldn't be any worse (pts-wise) than last year, e johnson should get some red zone looks (when teams triple-team TO and garcia freezes out JJ), and elam should get a decent # of FGAs this season. weak point: there could very easily be too little substance to fulfill wang's projected potential. vick could take another year or 2 to get it going. j miller is hardly a reliable backup QB. a 2nd RB could potentially never establish himself. keenan and peerless provide plenty of TD competition for keyshawn and moulds. e johnson could sink back into the depths of anonymity. and elam was injured in y2k. 6 Drew - 95.48 projected starters: peyton, m bennett, duce, boston, chambers, algae, mare the main keys for drew's team: will m bennett turn into another badger pumpkin of a RB? will the young and potentially studly WRs pan out? if bennett fails to show dramatic improvement over last season (846 combined yds and 3 TDs), drew could be in big trouble RB-wise. Drew has 3 incredibly gifted young WRs in chambers (again with the badgers), freddie mitchell and donte stallworth. but recent history has shown that rookie WRs (stallworth) rarely contribute, and 2nd-year WRs (mitchell) still need another year of seasoning. chambers should prove to be the exception - unless the dolphins' passing game shrivels up with the arrival of ricky "3 yds, a cloud of dust and a fumble" williams. strong points: passing game (manning-boston-chambers), potential RB value - i personally like chambers and therefore project drew to battle brodz (greasy-TO-holt) for top-ranked passing game honors. boston was huge last year, and is even bigger this year. there's a little concern about the dungy-effect on manning's numbers, but with the colts' running game on the verge of collapse... manning could be putting up 60 passes per game - and INTs don't count in RFL. shrewdly waiting until round 12 for a TE (a crumpler) - knowing that all 15 other teams already had a TE by the 9th round - was quite wise for a rookie GM (though drew should credit wang's draft sheet for this info). some people might be down on drew's RB trio of bennett-duce-duckett, but getting these 3 in rounds 3, 5 and 7 could prove to be a nice bargain. duce won't be too loose on running plays, but he can certainly take 1 screen pass the distance per game. and tj will be getting all the non-vick goalline carries for the falcons. weak point: backups - dilfer? no. galloway? not really. duckett? maybe. 7 JoePa - 94.97 projected starters: garcia, s davis, t henry, j morton, r gardner, t heap, wilkins i can't help but feel that this is a "strange" lineup for joepa and thefreakinblackhawks. where're the RBs with the long injury rap sheets? where's the "athletic" QB-of-the-future? well, i guess the normalcy is the WR corps with a high potential for floppage - and a top-notch kicking game. the key for thefreakinblackhawks clearly is the set of WRs. if joepa cannot get top-flight production from morton-gardner-w jackson-pathon-pinkston, this team should be in for a rather uneventful season. yes, morton and gardner are in potentially potent passing games. but neither has really shown the potential to be go-to RFL WRs. what team does w jackson play for now? is pathon still on the colts? and we all know of commish cals' travails with t pinky last year. strong points: garcia, s davis and wilkins - garcia certainly doesn't look like an RFL QB, but i guess just about anyone (except r mirer) could put up humongous numbers throwing to TO and co. getting s davis at pick #23 should prove to be quite the steal. this is the same davis that was drafted (#2) ahead of m faulk (#3) 2 years ago. a secret key to RFL success in the past was a big-time PK. but with the liberalizing of RFL's scoring rules over the past few years, grabbing a top-tier PK too early in the draft could be counterproductive. but i like joepa's grabbing of wilkins in round 6. weak points: WRs and RB#2 - we've already gone over the WR situation. at RB#2, joepa has a choice between t henry and r dayne. dayne's not worth talking about. henry has some potential, but not much. 8 Joebob - 94.96 projected starters: k collins, c martin, deuce, d jackson, t glenn, bubba, edinger in a striking departure from years past, joebob did not draft 7 starters with a cumulative age just shy of 280 - as joebob is clearly attempting to shed his growing reputation as "the buffalo bills of RFL." with the new league rule regarding being able to start a 3rd WR over a 2nd RB, only 2 teams drafted 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds. joebob was the first (ali was the other). so... the pressure is on joebob to press this RB advantage into an aglione bowl title. the keys for junior mints are deuce and kerry. considering how little deuce produced in r williams' shadow last season (257 yds and 2 TDs), he was incredibly hyped coming into this Draft. yes, r williams was dealt to MIA. but williams had turned into a fumbling, stumbling and bumbling machine at the end of 2k1. k collins has a decent set of receivers to catch some TD tosses, but she's not an RFL championship caliber QB. strong points: RB and WR duos - clearly junior mints will be strong at RB - having gone there in rounds 1 and 2. the weakness at QB is due to joebob nabbing quite a talented WR tandem in rounds 3 and 4 - darrell jackson and terry glenn. weak points: QB and TE - having addressed RB and WR in rounds 1-4, joebob went to TE (b franks) and QB (kerry) in rounds 5 and 6. bubba has gotten quite a bad rap in many preseason writeups - seems bubba scored all those TDs last season in spite of having hands of stone and little respect from fav-ruh. in order for joebob not to be choking down junior's junior mints, j harrington might need to step in for kerry by the time the postseason comes around. 9 Shivan - 94.38 projected starters: gannon, sh alexander, jamal lewis, d mason, m booker, c lewis, vinatieri wang's misfortune at getting pick #2 meant cals secured #1 - and shiv got #3. and the young desai didn't disappoint - quickly building a credible franchise with shaun alexander and gannon in the 1st 2 rounds. the keys for ghetto fab bindys should be derrick mason and chad lewis. what the hell are bindys anyway?!? an STD? a drug? little man shiv's too hip for me. anyway... will mason repeat his stellar numbers from last year? or will he return to his unimpressive numbers from the 4 seasons prior? and even though c lewis hit paydirt 6 times last season, his yardage total was nearly cut in half. which lewis will show up this season? strong points: as stated previously, shaun alexander and gannon should give ghetto fab bindys a solid 1-2 punch every week. *if* the ravens can get their O going and *if* he can stay healthy, jamal lewis could prove to be a steal in the 4th round - as shiv's gannon and jamal lewis picks both sent shock waves through wang's draft war room. weak points: shiv's WRs are clearly the weak point. d mason should be ok, but m booker is a question mark on top of a 4 WR scramble for touches in CHI. az-zahir hakim and ike are sub par backups. shiv's weak bench is further illustrated by a WA QB (neither matthews nor shiv's wuerffel should be able to hold onto the job for than a couple games at a time), HOU RB j allen and SEA PK lindell. at least shiv has a vinatieri of the SUPER BOWL CHAMPION NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS on his team. that's gotta be worth something - aside from the fact that a cousin of his showed up at wang's for a bbq wearing a vinatieri jersey and couldn't stop blabbing about being adam's cousin. 10 Gary - 93.31 projected starters: bledsoe, a train, m harrison, troy brown, l coles, byron, stover gary's [team name TBD] should be the 1st team in this preview who really should look to a 3rd WR (laveranues) over a 2nd RB (lamar smith). even with deshaun foster out for a few weeks to start the season, lamar smith is t jones' poor ypc without the pass-catching ability. so clearly one key for gary is getting production from that WR/RB starting slot. gary's other RB is s mack - who can step in nicely when f taylor goes down again. gary's other potential WR#3 is j mcknight. no. a 2nd key for gary is starting QB bledsoe - who bled so profusely (internally) from that love tap from some jet LB. brady isn't a bad backup QB, but he's more along the lines of a dilfer - instead of a bouman. gary used a 3rd round pick on bledsoe, so clearly he feels that the bills' O-line has improved since r johnson's days of getting sacked every other pass play. strong points: as long as bledsoe stays alive, gary has quality performers at every position (bledsoe, a thomas, m harrison, b chamberlain, m stover). a train's 2k1 numbers (1361 yds, 7 TDs) were attained in only 14 games (10 starts). harrison (despite his hot-and-cold-ness) will have big numbers at the end of the season. chamberlain is ready to grow into some of the departed c carter's numbers. and the ravens' scoring chances will all be FGAs this year. weak points: i have already covered the lack of a 2nd RB issue. i also do not particularly like troy brown (4th round) this year. we'll keep an eye on him. and what's with drafting a 2nd TE (becht). gary was the only GM to pull this maneuver - in the 11th round no less. will this turn out to be the key moment of gary's season? 11 Richard - 90.02 projected starters: warner, f taylor, c portis, koren, hines, pollard, hanson why would richard dump schroeder for chrebet? why would richard trade muhsin for hines? true... schroeder might not have a decent QB to get the ball to him for part of the season, and muhsin *definitely* won't have a QB to get him the damn ball all season long. but these are quite the curious WR moves between draft day and opening day. i project both moves to cost richard points in the end - and in fact should drop the repulsive punk asses to 12th in this poll. the primary key for repulsive punk asses is clearly k warner. if warner shakes off his ouchied thumb, and richard keeps his other 6 starters reasonably productive... RPA should have a good shot at winning any given sunday. but picking a QB in round 1 (4th overall) has clearly impacted richard's club at RB, WR and PK. the 2nd key for richard is RB. will fred taylor play more games than not? will the rookie clinton portis be able to overcome his bad case of fumble-itis to hold off o gary and m anderson for the bulk of bronco carries? strong points: i was going to write that i liked his WR value in rounds 6 (schroeder) and 7 (muhammad), but those 2 guys have been replaced by a 10th rounder (chrebet) and a 6th (h ward). especially considering chrebet just got his big $ contract... how are you going to get RFL production out of a short, slow and fat white guy?!? at least RPA has marvcus pollard. with dilger gone somewhere else, pollard only has to contend with m harrison for TD catches. weak points: f taylor (injury) and c portis (fumbles). backup RB alstott also fumbles a ton, but he might actually be productive enough to step in in case of emergencies. 12 Clark - 89.77 projected starters: t green, priest, tiki, horn, price, dilger, gramatica commish #2i hemmed and hawwed for close to an hour about his pick at #7 - as apparently edgerrin (taken by brad at #6) was his intended target. clark ended up with priest - as he was not inclined to start the WR grab, and he had no intention of bringing e george back into the fold. the keys for ac milan (why ac milan? real madrid is clearly the superior side!) will be tiki and dilger. even though i like tiki with the more liberalized yardage bonus point rule, many thought that the 3rd round was a little too early to take him - particularly with talent such as bettis, t henry and m bennett among the next 4 picks. clearly clark has disdain for joepa's 7th rounder dayne. and many of ac milan's rabid supporters were quite puzzled by dilger's selection in round 9. dilger was essentially the lowest rated player taken in the Draft - and clearly would still have been available in round 12. apparently clark sees bigger numbers coming from tiki and dilger than most so-called experts/gurus. strong points: but like i said, i think tiki will do quite well this season. and with a RB duo of priest and tiki, clark should really capitalize on the revised yardage bonus pt rules. and i also must state for the record that i really like m gramatica this year. it's like having an all-RFL PK with the raiders' O - instead of a fat, loose (polish) cannon with the threat of impending deportation hanging over his head. weak points: i'm not a big fan of t green. he should be a little better this season, but is the addition of j morton enough to improve an *atrocious* WR corps in KC? and i look for p price to take a backseat to moulds this season. 13 Zach - 86.84 projected starters: favre, e george, garner, rice, keenan, shockey, j-kow 3 raider starters... i wonder which team zach likes! i really like how fat bastards started out the draft - with an apparently fully healthy e george and b favre. but then i think zach's dive into the black hole (rice in 3, garner in 4, j-kow in 7) might have hurt his shot at making the playoffs in his inaugural season. rice will score as many TDs as tim brown says he can. garner is fighting a recovering wheatley this season, and j-kow has been putrid this preseason. i feel that seabass and shockey will be the primary keys for fat bastards this season. the raider O should provide janikowski with plenty of scoring opportunities. the question is whether he will hang onto his job or not. as for shockey... few TEs have ever gotten this much hype during their rookie preseason. as the 4th TE picked (in the 5th round, no less), will shockey prove to be another m bavaro? or will he be another howard cross? strong points: favre and george should be right up there with the league's top QB-RB pairs. zach will need them to be - as depth on this team is non-existent. carr at QB... think t couch in '99. t minor at RB. not even if ricky gets hurt. i do think d alexander has a shot at #s with the vikes, but i'm not big on s moss or oronde. weak points: if you're going to have a rough rookie RFL season, you might as well have 3 players from your favorite NFL team on your roster. and even though i think garner, rice and j-kow will have decent seasons... i think zack would have been better off with j lewis, j smith and m gramatica. 14 Brodz - 86.60 projected starters: greasy, k barlow, TO, holt, mccaffrey, sloan, vanderjagt by waiting until round 5 to pick his 1st RB (kevan), brodz totally backed himself into starting 3 WRs. it's clear baby brodz brought his "new RFL" ways to brodz' maine draft war room this year - bullying daddy brodz into greasy-TO-holt-mccaffrey in the 1st 4 rounds. the old guard *knows* that a strong running game wins Aglione Bowl glory. but baby brodz obviously feels that 2k2 is the season to bring ranged weapons to the forefront. the keys to the tards of bas' season are 2 draft day decisions. in round 3, brodz took greasy over bettis, t henry and m bennett. and in round 4, brodz took mccaffrey over jamal lewis, emmitt and willie green - the same willie green that brodz initially picked in round 3. what gives? instead of going into the season with kevan barlow, amos zereoue and troy hambrick as your 3 primary RBs (YIKES!)... brodz could have had bettis/bennett, jlewis/wgreen and kordell instead of greasy, mccaffrey and barlow. strong points: the tards of bas will be the fun-and-gun squad of RFL2k2. brodz has already gone on record disclaiming any running up of the score - saying simply, "if your scrubs can't hang with mine, you should get better scrubs." weak points: non-existent running game. it's been 10 seasons since brodz' 1 and only RFL championship ('92). after aglione bowl losses in '96 and '97, brodz has vanished from the "scene." bringing in steve spurrier to consult the offense was a transparent move to put fannies back in the seats. it remains to be seen if such a drastic measure will pay off in the W-L column. 15 Brad - 86.10 projected starters: a brooks, edgerrin, pittman, qadry, muhsin, conwell, peterson after guiding his team of draft leftovers to a praise-worthy 3-11 record last year (and 4 games out of playoff contention), brad had been shooting his mouth off all offseason about getting his first shot at his RFL brethren with a team of actual *drafted* talent. well, the early verdict is that brad might as well have built another team from scratch again. taking edgerrin and a brooks in the 1st 2 rounds was quite the high-risk move. edgerrin's situation has been well-documented. but what of a brooks? yes, he put up some good numbers last year... but to hold out this offseason - based upon one season of above-average stats? not a good move. he'll have horn to throw to again, but no cam cleeland this year! this season could get ugly quickly for the ain'ts. aside from the obvious RB keys of edgerrin and deshaun foster, m pittman might prove to be the more crucial key. coach gruden clearly liked what he saw when pittman and the cards carved up the raider D last season - bringing in pittman to take over for dunn and alstott. but pittman's history of injuries is even longer than edgerrin's and foster's put together. if 2 of brad's RBs can stay healthy, the terrible towels will have a formidable running game. strong points: all the negative things said about brooks and the RBs aside, these 4 guys are tremendously talented - and could come together to perhaps get brad into the playoffs. weak points: the terrible towels' distinct weakness is at WR. picking a 3rd RB (foster) over the 1st WR has left brad with a WR quandary: qadry, muhsin, randle-el and dez white. can you say, "wang actually won't finish last in WR pts this year!"? 16 Ali - 85.24 projected starters: mcnair, r williams, antowain, thrash, toomer, wycheck, akers what has happened to ali?!? after striking gold in y2k (well... actually gold [m faulk] fell into ali's lap when edgerrin and s davis went 1-2 in the y2k draft) with the steamroller and aglione bowl double dip, ali's franchise has sunk back to its mediocre pre-y2k years' level. although it's unfair that *someone* has to get placed last in my preseason poll, ali's team is the only one to place in the bottom 5 of my poll and #2i's poll. the big key for ali to get into postseason contention is his WR group. getting mcnair, r williams and antowain in the 1st 3 rounds makes for a solid running game. but picking thrash and toomer in rounds 4 and 5 could easily prove to be ali's undoing this year. thrash is probably the most streaky player in RFL history, but good game vs bad game streaks for thrash usually run in the 1-to-3 ratio. toomer is not impressive. ali's own man laveranues was available at the time! how could he leave coles hanging out to dry like that?!? marvcus robinson could be a good 3rd WR - as long as his spine doesn't give out. jeff graham? what team was that...? strong points: if you go RB in rounds 1 and 2 - and then QB in the 3rd, you shouldn't have 3 question marks after 3 rounds. the stats from last season won't lie, but what will these guys do this year? your first 3 picks have got to be your strongest points, but r williams did not look good during the dolphins' preseason. i'm not a fan of antowain's going into this season. and mcnair has performed poorly in the 3 previous even-numbered calendar years of his career. weak points: i simply think this club is not as talented across the board as it should be. i've been proven wrong quite frequently in the past. perhaps it's ali's turn this year.